Let’s follow the economic timeline from
1787 into the 1930s. In assessment, a few attributes become apparent in all three Kondratiev
Waves. During each one, the number of prosperous years exceeds the not-so-prosperous ones.
If we count the years of prosperity as those above trend, the ratio is two-thirds above
and one-third below trend. The second attribute is the sequence of fluctuations
between major wars and their subsequent recessions. Each of the first three waves had a major
war, The War of 1812, The War Between the States, and the First World War, respectively.
Each period of prosperity, either during or immediately after a major war, is followed
first by a Post-War Recession/Depression and, later, by a second one. Also, there are two
to three more post-war recession years than there were years of war-related prosperity.
This fact challenges the old adage that war is good for the economy.
Also, periods of extended prosperity tend to be more stable than sudden boom/busts.
Two boom/bust cycles occurred back to back during the expansionary phase of the second